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    • ESPN.com NFL analyst for fantasy football
    • Pro Football Writers of America member
    • Pro Football Focus Fantasy’s founding director
    • The FSTA award for the most accurate preseason rankings was given out in 2013.

The Week 11 Fantasy Football Playbook is here!

This will be your week’s NFL game-by-game guide, complete with score forecasts, over/unders, win percentages, and, of course, easy-to-understand fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should assist you in making a variety of decisions, including sit/start selections, last-minute waiver additions, and lineup selections.

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Although I’ll often reference “shallow” or “deep” leagues for borderline starters, the advise is concentrated on 12-team PPR leagues with somewhat normal scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST). All players predicted for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs, are included in the charts. The “matchup” is calculated automatically using a proprietary methodology that considers the opposing defense’s raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed at each position this season.

(Editor’s note: While projections and rankings will nearly always line, a player’s ranking may be slightly higher or lower due to other considerations such as upside or risk when a projection is close.) This column may be changed throughout the weekend, however rankings will be updated on the site at the very least, and predictions will always be updated within the game coming up to kickoff.)


Bills 28, Colts 21 is the projected score.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB2   24.9

Great

QB25   15.3

Poor

RB9   17.5

Poor

RB24   10.7

Poor

RB38   7.9

Poor

RB41   7.2

Poor

WR5   18.0

Great

WR24   14.1

Poor

WR35   11.1

Great

WR37   10.8

Great

WR52   9.2

Poor

WR59   8.3

Poor

TE12   9.2

Great

DST9   6.3

Shaky

DST26   3.3

Poor

Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, and Stefon Diggs are the linebacker locks.

  • Over his previous six games, Carson Wentz has produced four top-12 fantasy weeks, but he’s coming off a Week 10 flop and will now face a great Buffalo defense. He has a place on the benches.

  • In Week 10, Matt Breida scored two touchdowns, although he only played on eight plays, compared to 25 for Zack Moss and 21 for Devin Singletary. If at all possible, avoid Buffalo’s backfield, but Moss remains the ideal flex. Nyheim Hines hit rock bottom last week, finishing below the top 45 fantasy running backs for the sixth time in his past seven games. He’s a PPR flex option in deep leagues.

  • You’d be hard-pressed to bench Michael Pittman Jr. (fantasy football’s No. 7-scoring WR), but the rookie wideout faces Tre’Davious White and the Bills this week, so keep that in mind. Cole Beasley’s health restricted him to just nine plays last week, thus he’s been demoted to flex status for the time being. Emmanuel Sanders hasn’t had a top-30 fantasy performance since Week 6, but he gets a favorable matchup this week and is a WR3 option. T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal, both of the Indianapolis Colts’ secondary receivers, should be avoided in this battle.

  • Last week, Dawson Knox returned from injury to play 45 of 54 plays, and despite only receiving one target, he remains a viable touchdown prospect and TE1 contender.

48.5 Over/Under (4th highest in Week 11) Bills have a 75% chance of winning (4th highest)


Ravens 25, Bears 21 is the projected score.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB1   24.9

Good

QB18   16.0

Good

RB17   15.1

Good

RB35   8.3

Shaky

RB42   7.0

Shaky

WR13   15.5

Great

WR34   11.4

Shaky

WR36   11.0

Great

WR41   10.5

Shaky

TE4   13.9

Poor

TE17   8.2

Good

DST4   7.4

Good

DST17   4.4

Average

Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, and Mark Andrews are the starting quarterbacks.

  • Prior to Chicago’s bye, Justin Fields had two top-10 fantasy performances. This gives hope that a breakthrough is on the way, but in most forms, he’s still too risky to consider for your lineups.

  • In his Week 9 comeback, David Montgomery played 49 of 58 plays and is back in the mix as an every-week RB2. Latavius Murray is set to return from injury this week, but he’ll continue to defer to Devonta Freeman and Ty’Son Williams for substantial touches. Le’Veon Bell was just freed this week. Murray and Freeman are unimpressive flex options in the deep league.

  • Darnell Mooney had three top-30 fantasy weeks in the four games leading up to Chicago’s bye week, thanks to his high target share. Allen Robinson II has yet to have a top-30 fantasy week this season, but he did have a season-high 11 fantasy points in his most recent appearance. Mooney and Robinson are both back on the WR3/flex radar now that Fields has breathed new life into the Chicago offense. Despite the return of Sammy Watkins last week, Rashod Bateman set a career best with 14 fantasy points, making him an excellent WR3/flex option.

  • Cole Kmet had a season-high eight targets and a career-high 87 yards when we last saw him in Week 9. The second-year tight end is improving, but he’s still not in the running for TE1.

45.4 Over/Under (9th highest) Ravens have a 65 percent chance of winning (8th highest)


Browns 25, Lions 19 is the projected score.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB22   15.8

Good

QB28   12.6

Great

RB6   18.2

Average

RB8   17.5

Great

RB29   9.6

Average

RB34   8.4

Great

WR32   12.0

Average

WR54   9.1

Average

WR57   8.6

Great

WR58   8.4

Great

TE9   10.5

Average

TE21   6.6

Average

TE23   6.1

Average

DST2   7.2

Good

DST25   4.2

Shaky

D’Andre Swift and Nick Chubb are the lineup locks.

  • Baker Mayfield was forced to leave Week 10’s action early due to injury, but even if he returns, he won’t be a fantasy option, as he has just one top-10 fantasy performance all season. It’s a similar story for Jared Goff (also iffy), who hasn’t finished higher than 20th in any week since Week 2. Tim Boyle, who would be making his first NFL start if Goff is unavailable, should also be avoided.

  • D’Ernest Johnson has performed well when called upon to start this season, but with Chubb on the field between Weeks 8-9, he was restricted to just 12 fantasy points. Even though this is a fantastic matchup, Johnson is nothing more than a deep-league flex option. Swift is Detroit’s obvious lead back, thus Jamaal Williams, if he returns from injury this week, shouldn’t be in lineups.

  • Jarvis Landry hasn’t scored more than 10 points in each of his four games since returning from injury, but he’s a “squeaky wheel” who might see his targets increase this week. Mayfield’s top downfield option is on the WR3 radar. Last week, Donovan Peoples-Jones returned to earth, a reminder of his low-target, boom-and-bust position. He’s also suspect this week and should be avoided. Kalif Raymond and Amon-Ra St. Brown, two of Detroit’s best receivers, have combined for just two top-30 fantasy weeks this season.

  • T.J. Hockenson had three straight top-12 performances before to the dreaded goose egg in Week 10. He’ll continue to be a TE1 in the midrange.

43.8 Over/Under (13th highest) Browns have a 72 percent chance of winning (5th highest)


The Titans are expected to win by a score of 29 to 18 against the Texans.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB10   18.9

Good

QB24   15.6

Average

RB23   11.0

Average

RB28   9.6

Average

RB30   9.1

Average

RB37   8.0

Average

WR8   16.5

Average

WR14   15.6

Good

WR65   7.5

Average

WR66   7.5

Good

WR67   6.9

Good

TE20   7.0

Good

DST1   7.2

Great

DST22   4.2

Average

A.J. Brown and Brandin Cooks are the linebacker locks.

  • Ryan Tannehill has three top-12 fantasy performances in his previous four games and is a great streaming option this week. Tyrod Taylor had two 16-point fantasy performances to start the season, but he struggled in his return from injury last week and can’t be trusted in lineups just yet.

  • D’Onta Foreman (11 carries, two targets on 21 plays) took command of the Titans’ backfield in Week 2, while Adrian Peterson (eight carries, one target on 19 snaps) and Jeremy McNichols (four carries, three targets on 15 snaps) were also heavily engaged. The best flex option here is Foreman, but all three are dangerous as Tennessee continues to iron out the details. Royce Freeman has joined Houston’s four-man RB rotation, and all four are awful fantasy possibilities.

  • Geoff Swaim — yes, Geoff Swaim! — has now caught four passes in three games. In two of those games, he also scored a touchdown. In two-TE leagues, he’s a name to consider starting.

46.6 Over/Under (6th highest) Titans have an 85% chance of winning (2nd highest)


The Vikings are expected to win by a score of 23, while the Packers are expected to lose by a score of 23.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB13   18.0

Shaky

QB17   16.4

Poor

RB5   18.3

Average

RB12   16.9

Good

WR2   21.3

Average

WR7   17.1

Poor

WR22   14.1

Poor

WR62   7.9

Average

WR69   6.5

Average

WR70   6.0

Poor

TE13   9.4

Good

DST13   4.7

Average

DST23   4.0

Poor

Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen are the lineup locks.

  • Aaron Rodgers has now finished 14th or worse in three straight fantasy football games, but this comes after a six-game stretch of 19-plus point performances. Against a Minnesota defense that has been solid against quarterbacks this season, he’s best seen as a marginal QB1. Kirk Cousins has six top-12 fantasy finishes this season, but he also has three 19th-place finishes. Against a red-hot Packers’ pass defense, he’s a name to avoid.

  • With Aaron Jones out for a week or two, AJ Dillon has taken over as Green Bay’s starting running back. Dillon, who had 128 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries last week, will only have to compete for touches with Patrick Taylor and maybe Ryquell Armstead. He’ll be in the RB1 mix if he gets a significant position.

  • Last week, none of Green Bay’s wide outs saw more than four targets, with the exception of Adams. All of these should be avoided.

  • Tyler Conklin has now scored 9.5 or more fantasy points in four consecutive games. He’s a marginal TE1 play this week, averaging 11.6 fantasy points during that time.

46.1 Over/Under (7th highest) Vikings have a 52 percent chance of winning (15th highest)


The Dolphins are expected to win by a score of 24, while the Jets are expected to lose by a score of 21.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB9   20.3

Average

QB23   15.8

Good

RB16   16.0

Great

RB18   15.8

Average

RB36   8.1

Average

RB44   6.1

Great

WR17   15.1

Average

WR29   12.0

Good

WR42   10.4

Good

WR46   9.7

Good

WR63   7.7

Average

WR68   6.6

Good

TE5   11.9

Average

DST6   6.5

Great

DST18   4.3

Great

Mike Gesicki has been named to the starting lineup.

  • Tua Tagovailoa has four consecutive top-15 fantasy weeks (despite not starting last week) and is a great streamer this week versus the Jets. Joe Flacco will take the field ahead of the ineffectual Mike White and the injured Zach Wilson, but he won’t be in the starting lineup.

  • The Jets’ run defense has been shockingly bad this season, allowing 13 different running backs to reach 15 fantasy points. Myles Gaskin’s numbers have been all over the place, but he’s on track for his fourth top-15 fantasy performance in the last seven weeks. Michael Carter is coming off his third top-15 fantasy performance in as many weeks and is an excellent RB2.

  • Jaylen Waddle has a 9.4 target per game average over his previous five games and will be a WR2 contender as long as DeVante Parker and William Fuller V are absent. In seven games this season, Corey Davis has four top-30 fantasy performances and is a possible WR3 against Miami’s failing pass defense. Elijah Moore has three consecutive 26th-place finishes and has seen six or more targets in six of his eight outings this season. With the QB switch, he’s a risky choice, but he’s still the preferred flex option over teammate Jamison Crowder.

DFS Alert: DraftKings has Tagovailoa ($5,500) as a great bargain this week. Despite ranking sixth in fantasy points during his four complete games this season, the second-year quarterback is priced 15th out of the 24 expected starters on the slate. In 4.5 games, Tagovailoa has thrown seven touchdowns and added three more on the run. Despite his lack of playing time, he has as many top-15 fantasy finishes (4) as Tannehill, Justin Herbert, and Joe Burrow this season. The matchup is crucial this week, as the Jets have given up the second-most passing yards this season. In nine games, New York has allowed seven quarterbacks to score 19 or more fantasy points.

44.4 Over/Under (12th highest) Dolphins have a 62 percent chance of winning (10th highest)


The Saints are expected to win by a score of 24, while the Eagles are expected to lose by a score of 22.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB6   19.7

Shaky

QB21   16.0

Average

RB3   19.0

Average

RB26   10.2

Poor

RB39   7.6

Average

WR28   12.0

Great

WR45   9.8

Poor

WR55   8.8

Poor

WR56   8.7

Poor

WR61   7.9

Great

WR71   6.0

Great

TE6   11.0

Poor

TE16   8.3

Great

DST11   5.4

Shaky

DST14   4.9

Shaky

Jalen Hurts, Alvin Kamara, Jalen Hurts, Jalen Hurts, Jalen Hurts, Jalen Hur

  • Trevor Siemian has completed two touchdown passes in a succession, but he doesn’t offer much with his legs, and Taysom Hill is still in the mix. He’s not a QB1 candidate.

  • Boston While Miles Sanders was out, Scott and Jordan Howard both had two top-25 fantasy weeks, but with the team’s leading back possibly returning this week, things are a little murky. The Eagles’ increasingly run-heavy offense now has four backfield options (including rookie Kenneth Gainwell), and it’s unclear how the touches will be split. If Sanders returns, he’ll be the safest flex option, but he’s not the most appealing option against a Saints defense that has allowed the third-fewest RB fantasy points and the second-lowest RB yards per rush (2.8) this season. Scott will be the slightly favored flex over Howard if Sanders is out.

  • DeVonta Smith has scored 22.6 fantasy points in three straight games. Although he’s been inconsistent this season, his current rise, along with a respectable target share, puts the rookie in the WR3 conversation. This season, Marquez Callaway has four top-35 fantasy weeks, but he and the rest of the Saints receivers have a difficult battle against the Eagles’ elite pass defense.

  • Dallas Goedert (concussion) is iffy for this week, but if he plays, he’ll be a TE1. If not, this is a matchup to avoid, as New Orleans hasn’t allowed a single tight end to score in the double digits all season.

46 Over/Under (8th highest) Saints have a 55 percent chance of winning (13th highest)


Panthers 22, Washington 18 (Projected Score)

Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Terry McLaurin are the lineup locks.

  • Cam Newton is back, and he’ll make his first start of 2021 in Week 11 after scoring two touchdowns off the bench last week. Newton had a 137-592-12 season running line and was fantasy scoring’s QB15 when we last saw him in a full-time duty (with New England in 2020). There’s a risk here as he learns Matt Rhule’s playbook, but Newton’s legs propel him into the QB2 conversation straight away. Taylor Heinicke, on the other hand, has five top-12 fantasy weeks this season, but Carolina’s strong pass defense makes him a bad streaming option.

  • Antonio Gibson returned from the bye week with a bang, rushing for 78 yards and two scores on 26 carries against a stingy Buccaneers run defense. Gibson continues to be underutilized in the receiving game, but his running volume puts him in the RB2 conversation. J.D. McKissic’s game script is still a factor, but his 11.0 fantasy PPG keeps him in the flex conversation.

  • Last week, Newton connected with Robby Anderson for a score. That’s encouraging, and Anderson might return to the WR3 mix, but we should be careful given that Week 10 was Anderson’s first weekly finish higher than 40th this season.

  • With Logan Thomas still out, Ricky Seals-Jones (hip) will be a borderline starting tight end possibility if he is ready to play this week. This is a predicament to avoid if Seals-Jones sits.

DFS Alert: McCaffrey is available for $8,900 this week at DraftKings, which isn’t cheap, but it’s also too low for a player of his level. McCaffrey is the undisputed RB1 in fantasy football after four complete games this season. In his previous 22 games, he’s scored at least 23 fantasy points in 19 of them, averaging 27.8 PPG. Last week, he only played on 59 percent of Carolina’s plays, but he still had 13 carries and 10 targets in his second game back from injury. This week, McCaffrey gets a favorable matchup against Washington, which has given up the third-fewest yards and the fourth-most touchdowns (12) to running backs this season. Against Washington, Cordarrelle Patterson, Darrel Williams, Melvin Gordon III, Leonard Fournette, Moss, and Kamara all scored 17 fantasy points.

39.6 Over/Under (15th highest) Panthers have a 66 percent chance of winning (7th highest)


The 49ers are expected to win by a score of 23 to 20 over the Jaguars.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB20   15.8

Average

QB26   15.0

Good

RB13   16.2

Average

RB21   11.9

Poor

RB40   7.6

Poor

WR6   17.9

Good

WR33   11.5

Good

WR43   10.0

Shaky

WR48   9.5

Shaky

WR50   9.4

Shaky

TE3   14.1

Good

TE10   10.3

Average

DST8   6.2

Great

DST16   4.7

Average

James Robinson, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle are the linebacker locks.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo has had three straight top-12 fantasy weeks, but he has yet to throw for more than two touchdowns in a game and, apart from an odd trio of touchdowns earlier this season, his legs are all but non-existent. It’s great if he stays on the benches. Trevor Lawrence, who hasn’t finished higher than 20th in a weekly race since returning off his Week 7 bye, is in the same boat.

  • If Elijah Mitchell (finger) is ready to play this week, he’ll be an RB2 candidate, however Jacksonville’s run defense has been stronger than you would think, allowing just 3.7 YPC and 4.8 YPT to running backs. If Mitchell is out, Jeff Wilson Jr. will take his place in the flex debate, with JaMycal Hasty also out.

  • Brandon Aiyuk has three consecutive games with a 20 percent target share and is back in the weekly WR3 debate. Marvin Jones Jr. is your best flex option among Jacksonville’s wide receivers, but he hasn’t had a top-50 fantasy performance since Week 6, so avoid him if you can.

DFS Alert: Dan Arnold ($4,100) leads the Jaguars with 25 targets in the previous three weeks and is the TE value pick at DraftKings for the second week in a row. Only Travis Kelce has had more targets than Arnold in the previous five weeks, a stretch that has resulted in Arnold scoring 10-plus fantasy points in four of those games. Despite not scoring any touchdowns during this period, Arnold ranks seventh in fantasy points. This season, the 49ers haven’t given up much to tight ends, but their schedule has been light. Hockenson was by far the best of those they encountered, with an 8-97-1 record versus San Francisco.

42.7 Over/Under (14th highest) The 49ers have a 62 percent chance of winning (9th highest)


Bengals 25, Raiders 24 is the projected score.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB11   18.6

Good

QB12   18.3

Average

RB15   15.8

Good

RB19   14.2

Great

RB32   9.0

Great

RB43   6.8

Good

WR3   18.2

Poor

WR19   14.4

Poor

WR25   14.1

Average

WR38   10.8

Poor

WR51   9.3

Average

TE2   14.7

Shaky

TE19   7.2

Great

DST12   5.3

Good

DST24   4.1

Average

Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and Darren Waller are the lineup locks.

  • Prior to the Bengals’ Week 10 bye, Burrow has four top-12 fantasy weeks in his past six games. The second-year quarterback remains in the QB1 discussion because to Cincinnati’s incredibly effective passing attack. Derek Carr had five top-10 fantasy performances this season, but three 20th-place or worse efforts in his previous six games. He’s a QB1 on the periphery.

  • Josh Jacobs had a rare flop last week, but he’s now finished no worse than 21st in five of his seven games this season at running back. Against a Bengals defense that allows the fifth-most RB fantasy points, he’s a good RB2. Kenyan Drake is a flex option since he contributes to the passing game, and the Bengals have given up the most targets and catches to running backs this season.

  • The Raiders have done a nice job of shutting down wide receivers this season, allowing the sixth-fewest WR fantasy points. Tee Higgins, on the other hand, has had three top-25 fantasy weeks in a row because to his high output. He’s still a WR2 possibility. Hunter Renfrow has scored double digits in fantasy points in every game this season but one, and two of his top three outings have come in the past two weeks. The slot receiver is a solid WR3. Tyler Boyd has only had one top-40 fantasy week in his past five games. In a difficult matchup against Nate Hobbs, he’s an unimpressive flex option. Past week, Bryan Edwards burst for 88 yards and a touchdown, but he has yet to get more than six targets in any game of his career, and he has only gotten four looks in the last four games.

  • C.J. Uzomah is a TD-reliant TE1 who has a favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that allows the second-most fantasy points, catches, and yards to tight ends.

48.9 Over/Under (3rd highest) Bengals have a 53 percent chance of winning (14th highest)


Cowboys 27, Chiefs 25 is the projected score.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB3   22.1

Average

QB4   21.9

Great

RB10   16.9

Good

RB25   10.2

Shaky

RB27   9.8

Shaky

RB33   8.7

Good

WR1   21.6

Average

WR9   16.3

Good

WR16   14.5

Good

WR44   9.9

Good

WR53   9.1

Average

TE1   17.3

Good

TE11   9.5

Great

DST21   3.8

Average

DST28   3.0

Poor

Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Travis Kelce are the starting quarterbacks.

  • After missing five games due to injury, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is scheduled to return this week. Williams has performed well in his absence, and it’s conceivable he’ll continue to play a key part, but Edwards-Helaire was the obvious No. 1 back before to his injury, putting up 17-plus fantasy points in three straight games. For the time being, both should be considered flex alternatives. If Edwards-Helaire continues out, Williams might reclaim his spot as a marginal RB1.

  • Tony Pollard has had two weekly results higher than 25th for Dallas this season and isn’t a viable flex option. In his return from injury last week, Michael Gallup was targeted on five of his 40 plays and has swiftly re-entered the flex debate. Dalton Schultz had only two targets last week, matching a season low, but he had at least five in each of his previous six games. He’s still on TE1’s radar.

Hill ($8,200) is one of the more expensive DraftKings choices this week, but he’s definitely worth it. The dynamic receiver is presently ranked second in WR fantasy points with five top-10 performances. He has a career-high target share of 28 percent and has seen nine or more targets in seven consecutive games. The matchup versus Dallas is particularly fascinating, as the Cowboys have been in Man-1 on 50.3 percent of coverage plays this season, which is the most in the NFL. Hill has five 30-yard receptions this season, four of which came against man coverage and three of which came against Man-1. He’s also scored seven of his eight touchdowns against man coverage. Dallas allows 14.7 yards per WR catch, which is the second most in the league, and seven receivers have scored 19 fantasy points against them.

52.8 Over/Under (Highest) Cowboys have a 57 percent chance of winning (12th highest)


Cardinals 26, Seahawks 21 is the projected score.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB8   18.7

Average

QB15   16.9

Poor

RB7   17.7

Great

RB22   11.6

Average

WR11   15.7

Average

WR20   14.3

Average

WR23   14.2

Shaky

WR39   10.8

Shaky

WR40   10.5

Shaky

TE14   8.9

Average

TE22   6.5

Poor

DST5   6.6

Average

DST19   4.6

Shaky

James Conner and DK Metcalf are the linebacker locks.

  • Kyler Murray has missed Arizona’s previous two games due to injury, but if he plays this week, he’ll be right back in the QB1 mix. Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler should both be avoided as replacements if he’s sidelined.

  • If Chris Carson recovers from a neck injury this week, he’ll be an RB2 option. Travis Homer (30 snaps last week) and Alex Collins (29) will split the snaps if he continues out. Neither player is a good fantasy option, while Collins is the better flex option.

  • DeAndre Hopkins has been out for Arizona’s previous two games, but if he plays, he’ll be a certainty for the starting lineup. Christian Kirk has a fantasy point total of WR20. His worth is contingent on Murray and Hopkins’ condition, but he’s best regarded as a WR3. If Hopkins is out, A.J. Green will rise to flex status, but keep in mind that the veteran receiver has only scored 10 fantasy points once in his past five games. Rondale Moore, meanwhile, hasn’t topped double digits in fantasy points since Week 5 and should only be considered for a flex slot if Hopkins is out.

  • Since joining Arizona, Zach Ertz has averaged 5.0 targets per week, but he hasn’t topped 10 fantasy points since Week 7. By no means is he an automatic pick. Last week, Gerald Everett (questionable) received eight targets, roughly half of his season total (18) entering the week. He’s a name to keep an eye on, but he’s not quite ready to be a TE1.

47.3 Over/Under (5th highest) Cardinals have a 67 percent chance of winning (6th highest)


Chargers 24, Steelers 22 is the projected score.

Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Diontae Johnson are the lineup locks.

  • Herbert is fantasy football’s No. 7 quarterback, but that’s mostly due to his three top-two performances. Surprisingly, he hasn’t finished higher than 12th in any other weekly this season. The good news is that he’s struggled against man coverage, but he’s done the most of his damage against zone, notably Cover 3. The Steelers use a zone-heavy defense that relies heavily on Cover 3 coverage. Herbert is a starting quarterback. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger (COVID-19) might return this week, but in his absence, Mason Rudolph finished as fantasy’s QB13 last week, which was the greatest performance by any Steelers quarterback this season. Neither of them belong in a lineup.

  • Mike Williams’ most recent top-40 fantasy performance came in Week 5. During his first five games, he averaged 10.2 targets per game, but he hasn’t cleared six targets in any of his subsequent four. Williams has dropped to WR3 status. Chase Claypool hasn’t had a top-35 fantasy performance since Week 5 due to a toe injury. Despite this, he sees enough volume in a passing offense to keep him in the WR3 conversation.

  • Pat Freiermuth had three top-10 fantasy performances in his previous four games, including a career-high nine targets last week. For the time being, he’s a TE1. In four of his previous five games, Jared Cook has had less than five targets, and he has dropped out of the starting TE mix.

45.4 Over/Under (10th highest) Chargers have a 57 percent chance of winning (11th highest)


Buccaneers 30, Giants 19 is the anticipated score on Monday.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB5   21.7

Shaky

QB16   17.4

Average

RB11   17.2

Great

RB14   15.9

Poor

WR4   17.8

Shaky

WR15   15.2

Shaky

WR30   12.1

Average

WR31   12.0

Average

WR49   9.4

Average

WR64   7.6

Shaky

TE7   10.9

Average

TE15   8.5

Average

DST7   6.5

Average

DST27   3.0

Poor

Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans are the starting quarterbacks.

  • Daniel Jones returns from his bye week without a top-12 fantasy performance in five games. Against Tampa Bay, he belongs on the bench.

  • After returning from an ankle injury, Saquon Barkley is thrust into must-start position. Before the injury, Barkley had two top-10 fantasy weeks in a row, but against the Buccaneers’ powerful run defense, he’s best seen as an RB2.

  • Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Kadarius Toney will start at wide receiver for the Giants this week, while Sterling Shepard (quad) is doubtful. Shepard has been a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in each of his three complete games this season, so if he’s available, he and Golladay are the best WR3/flex options among the bunch if he’s available. Golladay, Toney, and Slayton all benefit if Shepard stays out.

  • Prior to the bye, Evan Engram had a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks (his best finishes of the season). In Week 11, he’s a toss-up starter. Rob Gronkowski is slated to return this week and will quickly reclaim his spot as the No. 1 tight end following a pair of 2-TD games to start the season.

49.4/49.4/49.4/49.4/49.4/49.4 (2nd highest) Buccaneers have an 85% chance of winning (Highest)


The Patriots are expected to win by a score of 27 to 18 against the Falcons on Thursday.

RANK

PLAYER

PROJ

MATCHUP

QB18   16.0

Great

QB29   14.4

Poor

RB17   15.8

Average

RB21   12.4

Good

RB36   8.6

Good

RB42   7.8

Average

RB46   7.2

Good

WR35   10.9

Good

WR44   10.0

Good

WR58   8.8

Shaky

WR67   7.9

Good

WR72   7.2

Shaky

WR74   6.6

Shaky

TE5   12.5

Poor

TE15   7.7

Average

TE26   6.2

Average

DST6   6.3

Great

DST19   4.6

Average

There are no lineup locks.

  • Mac Jones is on the rise, with two top-eight fantasy performances in the last month, but he has yet to finish higher than 17th this season. Atlanta has allowed the third-most QB fantasy points and touchdowns, so it’s a decent matchup, but Jones hasn’t done enough to get serious QB1 consideration. Matt Ryan, who has two top-10 fantasy weeks this season but two finishes outside the top 30 in the last three weeks, is in the same boat. Against a New England defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy QB points, he should be benched (and more than 17 fantasy points to the position only twice).

  • Damien Harris (concussion) missed last week’s game, but he had 14 or more carries and 10 or more fantasy points in five consecutive games before being ill. Because of his limited passing-game position, he lacks promise, with just one weekly result higher than 15th, and it’s probable he’ll lose employment to promising youngster Rhamondre Stevenson. Last week, Stevenson subbed in for Harris and had a 20-100-2 running line. Stevenson has scored 13 points or more in three of his last four games and will be a good RB2 if Harris is out — and a flex option if Harris plays. The two running backs have a great matchup against a Falcons defense that has given up the third most fantasy points to running backs.

  • The only reason fantasy’s RB9 isn’t classified as a lineup lock is because Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is uncertain. Mike Davis (four carries, one target on 20 plays last week) and Wayne Gallman (15 carries, two targets on 22 snaps last week) are expected to share backfield responsibilities if he misses time. Gallman did receive some early touches in Week 10, but the majority of his carries came in the second half of a blowout defeat, thus Davis (10+ fantasy points in six of nine games this season) is the stronger RB2/flex choice.

  • Previous week, Jakobi Meyers scored his first NFL touchdown, but the dependable slot receiver had just seven targets in his last two games and has only three weekly finishes higher than 35th all season. He’s a WR3/flex option. Last week, Kendrick Bourne set a career high with 24 fantasy points and surpassed 100 scrimmage yards for the first time, but the journeyman has only gotten four or less targets in seven of his ten games this season. He’s a high-risk, high-reward deep-league flex. Atlanta’s wide receivers are untrustworthy, as their No. 1 option, Russell Gage, has thrown two zero-point passes in the last three games. This is particularly true against a Patriots passing defense that has allowed just 109 WR catches this season, the fewest in the NFL.

  • Kyle Pitts hasn’t had a top-10 fantasy performance since Week 7, and he’s been kept under 10 fantasy points in six of his nine outings this season. He’ll also go up against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest catches and yards to tight ends, as well as the second-fewest fantasy points. Pitts’ large target share puts him in the conversation for TE1, but a dud is always a possibility. Hunter Henry has seven touchdowns in his last seven games, but he’s only seen four targets in the last five games. If you put him in your lineup, you’re wagering on a touchdown.

44.8 Over/Under (10th highest) Patriots have a 79 percent chance of winning (3rd highest)

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